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開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)下中國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系選擇及養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金運(yùn)作研究
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開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)下中國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系選擇及養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金運(yùn)作研究
摘要：本文從薩繆爾森的疊代模型出發(fā)，從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的角度對(duì)現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制、完全積累制以及部分積累制進(jìn)行分析。認(rèn)為在1個(gè)封閉式的經(jīng)濟(jì)中只要最優(yōu)儲(chǔ)蓄率能夠得到保證，養(yǎng)老金增長(zhǎng)的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)是完全1樣的，即養(yǎng)老金獲得增長(zhǎng)的物質(zhì)源泉只能是下1代就業(yè)人口的增長(zhǎng)和他們勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的提高。但在1個(gè)開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)里，最優(yōu)儲(chǔ)蓄率的討論就沒(méi)有意義了，因此經(jīng)濟(jì)的全球化為養(yǎng)老體系從現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制向積累制的轉(zhuǎn)軌提供了1個(gè)有利的支持。進(jìn)而引出經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化下中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)對(duì)外開(kāi)放中養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的投資與回報(bào)率問(wèn)題。隨著我國(guó)加入WTO6年以來(lái)資本市場(chǎng)對(duì)外開(kāi)放承諾的逐步兌現(xiàn)，應(yīng)該更多關(guān)注國(guó)際資本市場(chǎng)。國(guó)際資本市場(chǎng)上特別是發(fā)達(dá)資本市場(chǎng)的相對(duì)健康規(guī)范和安全，養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金投資的前提和重點(diǎn)是要保證長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的收益，在投資運(yùn)作時(shí)應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎地選擇最能分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的組合，達(dá)到在控制好投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的前提下提高投資的收益的目的。總的來(lái)看，文章從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài)運(yùn)行的角度，結(jié)合中國(guó)的實(shí)際情況，對(duì)上述問(wèn)題作1個(gè)較為全面的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析，進(jìn)而提出關(guān)于我國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系選擇及均衡運(yùn)行的戰(zhàn)略性思考。
關(guān)鍵詞：疊代模型；最優(yōu)儲(chǔ)蓄率；混合養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系；國(guó)際資本市場(chǎng)
Operation of Endowment Insurance Fund in Open Economy of China
Abstract: This paper analyzes the pay-as-you-go system, total accumulation system, and some accumulation system, from the viewpoint of economics on the basis of the iterative model raised by Samuelson. This paper holds that in a closed economy, as long as the optimal savings rate can be guaranteed, the material foundation for the growth of pensions is invariable, i.e. the increase of the population under employment in the next generation and the improvement of their productivity, but in an open economy, the discussion on the optimal savings rate is pointless. Accordingly, the economic globalization provides a favorable support for the endowment insurance system to transform from the current pay-as-you-go system to the accumulation system. Thus, this paper puts forward the issue of the investment and redounding rate of old-aged pension as Chinas capital market opens to the outside world and on the basis of Chinas actual conditions makes a comprehensive economic analysis on the above question from the perspective of dynamic macro-economics. More attention should be paid to the international capital market, as more and more capital market is open to the outside world since our country joined the WTO five years ago. International capital market especially the developed capital market is comparatively healthy, standard and safe. The precondition and key point of the investment of endowment insurance fund is to guarantee the long-term profits, so when investing, we should choose the group which can spread risks to the largest extent in order to get more profits on the condition that the investment risk is under control. Finally, this paper makes a strategic thinking on the choosing and balanced running of endowment insurance system of our country.
Key words: Over-lapping Model; Optimal Saving Rates; Mixed Endowment Insurance System; International Capital Market
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